📐 Outcome Report — Hiệu quả tín hiệu setup

Tạo lúc 13/08/2026 13:13 · 1614 tín hiệu có đủ ≥5 phiên theo dõi · dữ liệu 2025-10-13 → 2026-08-05 · mode OBSERVATION (đo forward return từ Open phiên kế tiếp, chưa mô phỏng trigger/stop)
⚠ Excess = return tín hiệu TRỪ return VNINDEX đúng cùng các phiên đó — đã loại thiên lệch thị trường tăng/giảm. Excess dương = tín hiệu tốt hơn mua chỉ số. Mẫu hiện tại nghiêng về các giai đoạn thị trường điều chỉnh (10–12/2025, 05–07/2026); kết luận sẽ vững hơn khi tích lũy thêm dữ liệu.

Tổng thể

NhómNExcess +5pExcess +10pExcess +20pBeat TT 20pMFE medianMAE median
Tất cả1614-0.43%-0.88%-1.25%42%+4.72%+8.17%

Theo trạng thái tín hiệu

ACTIONABLE = đã trigger thực tế trong phiên; WATCH = mới đủ điều kiện nền
NhómNExcess +5pExcess +10pExcess +20pBeat TT 20pMFE medianMAE median
ACTIONABLE393-0.54%-0.86%-1.22%44%+5.26%+9.58%
WATCH1221-0.39%-0.89%-1.26%42%+4.50%+7.85%

Theo loại setup

Sắp theo excess +20 phiên giảm dần
NhómNExcess +5pExcess +10pExcess +20pBeat TT 20pMFE medianMAE median
EMA20-PB223+0.29%+0.20%+0.14%46%+5.79%+7.88%
RANGE COMP255-0.54%-0.98%-0.73%42%+3.56%+7.26%
BREAKOUT228-0.30%-0.36%-0.78%48%+6.06%+11.13%
TIGHT CONS7-2.72%-2.01%-1.07%50%+2.11%+8.75%
VOL CONTR465-0.65%-1.28%-1.74%39%+4.04%+8.17%
VCP319-0.30%-1.14%-1.79%41%+4.74%+7.26%
LEADER PAUSE117-1.12%-1.49%-2.68%37%+6.03%+8.83%

Theo dải RS Score

Trả lời câu hỏi: ngưỡng RS nào đáng tin?
NhómNExcess +5pExcess +10pExcess +20pBeat TT 20pMFE medianMAE median
1. RS < 50544-0.54%-0.84%-0.84%45%+3.99%+7.96%
2. RS 50-55220-0.13%-0.66%-0.92%41%+3.27%+7.89%
3. RS 55-65377-0.00%-0.36%-0.65%41%+4.95%+7.84%
4. RS >= 65473-0.77%-1.45%-2.42%41%+5.91%+9.12%

Theo sức mạnh ngành lúc phát tín hiệu

PHÉP KIỂM TRỰC TIẾP cho phương pháp top-down (Breadth→Sector→Stock): nếu đúng, tín hiệu trong ngành dẫn dắt (top 1-3) phải có excess cao hơn hẳn ngành yếu (ngoài top-15). Hạng ngành lấy từ sector_ranking tại đúng ngày tín hiệu.
NhómNExcess +5pExcess +10pExcess +20pBeat TT 20pMFE medianMAE median
1. Top 1-3 (dẫn dắt)589-0.93%-1.75%-2.45%36%+3.75%+8.37%
2. Top 4-7378-0.41%-0.92%-2.24%37%+4.85%+8.70%
3. Top 8-15418-0.04%-0.38%-0.42%46%+5.64%+7.64%
4. Ngoài top-15 (ngành yếu)229+0.13%+0.49%+1.81%59%+6.66%+7.12%

Theo trạng thái thị trường lúc phát tín hiệu

NhómNExcess +5pExcess +10pExcess +20pBeat TT 20pMFE medianMAE median
STRONG_BULL312-0.18%-0.02%+0.93%50%+4.38%+9.56%
DIVERGENT_CAUTION728-0.00%-0.14%+0.32%49%+4.44%+9.06%
NEUTRAL296-0.89%-1.61%-2.65%34%+5.16%+6.82%
WEAK_BEAR230-0.99%-2.93%-7.94%19%+4.84%+5.69%
RECOVERY_WATCH48-2.96%-4.69%-8.59%19%+4.77%+6.85%

Chi tiết: Trạng thái thị trường × dải RS Score

Cùng một dải RS có thể hiệu quả trong bối cảnh này nhưng phản tác dụng trong bối cảnh khác. Bảng này tách riêng để thấy nên dùng ngưỡng RS nào tùy trạng thái thị trường.
Trạng thái thị trườngRS<50RS 50-55RS 55-65RS>=65
STRONG_BULL+0.32%
n=153 · 43%
+0.12%
n=43 · 51%
+1.71%
n=63 · 52%
+2.41%
n=53 · 66%
DIVERGENT_CAUTION-0.36%
n=313 · 48%
+1.58%
n=93 · 52%
+1.89%
n=154 · 53%
-0.53%
n=168 · 45%
NEUTRAL-5.61%
n=57 · 35%
-3.79%
n=55 · 24%
-3.88%
n=81 · 28%
+0.60%
n=103 · 42%
WEAK_BEAR-2.05%
n=17 · 47%
-5.23%
n=22 · 21%
-5.00%
n=65 · 12%
-10.71%
n=126 · 18%
RECOVERY_WATCH-10.15%
n=4 · 0%
-9.39%
n=7 · 0%
-7.69%
n=14 · 14%
-8.62%
n=23 · 30%
Mỗi ô: excess +20 phiên; dòng nhỏ là số mẫu n và tỷ lệ beat thị trường. Ô mờ = n < 15, chưa đủ tin cậy.

🏆 Top 10 excess tốt nhất (20p)

MãSetupNgày tín hiệuReturn 20pExcess 20p
BFCEMA20-PB2026-01-23+63.19%+63.01%
BFCVCP2026-01-29+58.61%+59.35%
VICEMA20-PB2025-11-11+60.32%+50.97%
MCHLEADER PAUSE2025-10-22+48.36%+50.25%
PVDEMA20-PB2026-01-27+45.47%+46.80%
GASBREAKOUT2026-01-05+47.17%+46.56%
PVDBREAKOUT2026-01-28+45.16%+44.38%
PETLEADER PAUSE2026-03-06+38.35%+42.55%
PVDVOL CONTR2026-01-29+38.30%+39.04%
PVTEMA20-PB2026-01-29+37.98%+38.73%

💀 Top 10 excess tệ nhất (20p)

MãSetupNgày tín hiệuReturn 20pExcess 20p
DCLVOL CONTR2026-03-24-36.95%-49.15%
DCLLEADER PAUSE2026-03-26-33.92%-47.70%
DCLRANGE COMP2026-03-30-34.57%-46.98%
DCLBREAKOUT2026-03-20-35.38%-46.89%
DCLBREAKOUT2026-04-01-37.17%-45.84%
PC1VCP2026-04-10-34.36%-43.55%
PC1VCP2026-04-14-35.33%-42.84%
DCLLEADER PAUSE2026-03-31-34.56%-42.74%
PC1RANGE COMP2026-04-09-33.58%-42.16%
VVSBREAKOUT2026-03-12-36.33%-38.63%

🔭 Theo dõi tín hiệu (Tuần-TF vs Tuần-AGG)

Hiệu suất +1 & +4 tuần của các tín hiệu nêu trong báo cáo so sánh cuối tuần.

① Hiệu suất tổng hợp theo nhóm (nhóm nào đáng tin hơn?)

NhómTổng TH+1t LN+1t Win+4t LN+4t Win
Cả hai (đồng thuận)578-1.0%40% (n=568)-2.0%37% (n=536)
Chỉ TF tuần635-1.0%37% (n=628)-2.0%35% (n=597)
Chỉ AGG bền297-0.8%37% (n=291)-2.3%32% (n=287)
Theo dõi các mã được nêu trong báo cáo so sánh Tuần-TF vs Tuần-AGG, đo lợi nhuận giá đóng cửa +1 tuần và +4 tuần kể từ tuần báo cáo. 'Cả hai' = đồng thuận đa khung; 'Chỉ TF' = đạt trên nến tuần; 'Chỉ AGG bền' = bền ở daily nhưng nến tuần chưa đạt. 🔥 = actionable. 'chờ' = chưa đủ forward. Chỉ gồm tuần có đủ daily archive để phân loại 3 nhóm.

② Chi tiết theo tuần (12 tuần gần nhất · mỗi mã: LN +1t / +4t)

Tuần báo cáoCả haiChỉ TFChỉ AGG bền
07/08/2026
2026-W32
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (10)
BMPchờ/chờ GMDchờ/chờ HCMchờ/chờ HHPchờ/chờ LPBchờ/chờ MSBchờ/chờ PET🔥chờ/chờ SSBchờ/chờ VICchờ/chờ VVSchờ/chờ
Chỉ TF tuần (7)
BAF🔥chờ/chờ DHC🔥chờ/chờ NAFchờ/chờ ORS🔥chờ/chờ VHM🔥chờ/chờ VNM🔥chờ/chờ VPIchờ/chờ
Chỉ AGG bền (6)
ACBchờ/chờ HDBchờ/chờ POWchờ/chờ SABchờ/chờ STBchờ/chờ TNIchờ/chờ
31/07/2026
2026-W31
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (10)
ACB+2.3%/chờ BMP-2.9%/chờ HCM+1.4%/chờ HHP🔥+0.7%/chờ LPB+2.1%/chờ MSB+1.6%/chờ PET+2.4%/chờ STB+4.6%/chờ VIC+0.4%/chờ VVS🔥+0.2%/chờ
Chỉ TF tuần (3)
PVP-0.6%/chờ SSB-3.2%/chờ VPI🔥-2.7%/chờ
Chỉ AGG bền (0)
—
24/07/2026
2026-W30
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (8)
HHP+0.3%/chờ LPB-1.1%/chờ MSB🔥+0.0%/chờ PET+6.3%/chờ STB🔥-3.0%/chờ VIC+0.5%/chờ VPI+0.5%/chờ VVS🔥-1.4%/chờ
Chỉ TF tuần (18)
ACB🔥-2.7%/chờ BAF+2.8%/chờ BMP+2.2%/chờ CTS+1.6%/chờ GMD+5.2%/chờ HCM🔥-2.3%/chờ HDB-2.5%/chờ KLB-1.7%/chờ NAB-2.8%/chờ NAF🔥+6.0%/chờ OCB-0.5%/chờ ORS+5.7%/chờ PVD-4.5%/chờ SSB+1.0%/chờ TCX+4.6%/chờ TTA+1.0%/chờ VHM+13.9%/chờ VND+0.6%/chờ
Chỉ AGG bền (0)
—
17/07/2026
2026-W29
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (14)
ACB-4.5%/chờ BMP-1.1%/chờ GMD-5.5%/chờ HCM+0.8%/chờ HHP+0.7%/chờ KLB-10.5%/chờ LPB-0.9%/chờ MSB-2.4%/chờ ORS-5.8%/chờ PET-4.4%/chờ STB+0.0%/chờ VIC-3.1%/chờ VPI+3.9%/chờ VVS+12.2%/chờ
Chỉ TF tuần (10)
E1VFVN30-4.8%/chờ HDB🔥-5.1%/chờ KDC-1.8%/chờ NAB🔥-3.1%/chờ NAF-7.0%/chờ POW-4.0%/chờ SBT-0.7%/chờ VHM-7.5%/chờ VJC-3.0%/chờ VND-7.6%/chờ
Chỉ AGG bền (4)
BAF-2.9%/chờ CTS-17.6%/chờ PVD-2.8%/chờ SSB-3.4%/chờ
10/07/2026
2026-W28
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (10)
ACB+4.4%/-0.7% BMP+3.8%/+1.8% HHP+4.1%/+5.9% LPB-0.9%/-0.9% MSB+3.5%/+2.5% PET+0.3%/+4.3% STB+4.9%/+6.4% VHM-4.4%/-0.7% VIC-1.3%/-3.6% VJC-4.9%/-9.1%
Chỉ TF tuần (8)
HCM+6.0%/+5.8% KDC-0.6%/+3.4% KLB+0.4%/+2.3% NAB🔥-3.0%/-11.3% NAF+0.5%/-1.1% POW-1.4%/-3.5% VND-0.8%/-7.5% VVS+10.8%/+22.8%
Chỉ AGG bền (7)
BAF-1.0%/+3.5% E1VFVN30-2.5%/-3.7% MBB-3.7%/-2.0% OCB-1.4%/-6.3% SBT-1.9%/-1.4% SSB-1.8%/-7.4% VPI-1.9%/-0.3%
30/06/2026
2026-W27
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (11)
E1VFVN30🔥-0.3%/-8.3% HCM+5.1%/+7.9% HHP+3.1%/+4.8% MSB-0.3%/-1.9% OCB+3.2%/-8.2% PET-4.7%/-7.8% STB🔥-4.1%/-1.8% VAB🔥-0.9%/-14.0% VHM🔥-1.1%/-13.1% VIC🔥+0.1%/-2.8% VJC+0.1%/-11.5%
Chỉ TF tuần (6)
BMP🔥-2.2%/-3.1% LPB🔥+0.6%/+0.0% NAB🔥-0.8%/-7.2% PVP-6.3%/-8.8% SSB🔥+1.2%/-4.0% VND+5.9%/-7.3%
Chỉ AGG bền (16)
ACB-0.2%/-0.7% BAF+0.8%/-2.2% BID-1.8%/-16.3% GEX-6.7%/-33.5% GMD+3.3%/-1.0% HDB+7.2%/-2.9% MBB+2.2%/-8.6% MWG-0.8%/-16.5% PVD-0.6%/-6.6% PVT-4.3%/-16.1% SAB-2.6%/-4.9% SBT-0.2%/-2.6% VCB-1.4%/-12.3% VHC-2.9%/-9.6% VPB+2.2%/-8.9% VPI-0.6%/+1.5%
26/06/2026
2026-W26
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (10)
E1VFVN30🔥-0.0%/-8.3% HCM+6.1%/+10.4% HHP-1.7%/+3.8% LPB🔥-3.8%/-1.1% MSB+0.6%/+0.3% OCB+4.1%/-7.6% STB🔥-2.3%/-0.3% VHM🔥-2.8%/-16.7% VIC🔥-3.4%/-6.5% VJC+1.6%/-8.7%
Chỉ TF tuần (6)
BMP🔥+0.4%/-2.0% NAB🔥+0.4%/-4.2% PET+1.9%/-2.0% POW🔥+0.7%/-9.8% PVP-2.8%/-3.9% VND+4.5%/-6.3%
Chỉ AGG bền (14)
ACB+0.2%/-0.4% BAF+1.5%/-2.2% BID+1.3%/-12.7% GMD+4.7%/+0.3% NAF-3.0%/-9.1% PVD+3.0%/+0.4% SAB-1.6%/-4.5% SBT-0.2%/-2.6% VAB+1.8%/-11.5% VHC-1.3%/-10.3% VPB+3.9%/-6.7% VPI-0.5%/+2.9% VPL-3.4%/-16.1% VVS-0.8%/+20.3%
19/06/2026
2026-W25
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (12)
ACB+1.8%/+6.1% E1VFVN30+2.0%/-1.8% HCM🔥-4.8%/+4.3% HHP+2.8%/+6.0% MSB🔥+0.6%/+3.5% NAB+6.1%/+4.9% PET🔥-4.7%/-2.3% SAB+1.1%/-2.6% STB+1.9%/+1.7% VIC🔥+10.9%/+7.1% VJC-0.7%/-6.5% VPL-2.4%/-12.3%
Chỉ TF tuần (7)
DHC🔥-0.5%/-3.6% LPB+10.4%/+10.2% PVP🔥-0.5%/-6.3% SSB🔥+8.1%/+7.0% VAB+4.6%/-4.1% VHM+11.5%/+0.4% VVS🔥+10.1%/+18.1%
Chỉ AGG bền (13)
BAF-0.8%/-0.2% BID-0.2%/-6.1% EVF-4.4%/-7.7% GEX+0.5%/-16.7% GMD-5.2%/+0.6% GVR-8.5%/-15.4% HPG-0.4%/-7.4% NAF-0.4%/-2.6% PHR-6.5%/-6.3% PNJ-5.4%/-35.9% POW+6.5%/+0.0% VCB-0.5%/-5.2% VPI+4.9%/+3.9%
12/06/2026
2026-W24
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (10)
GMD+1.3%/-0.9% HCM+4.6%/+3.0% HHP-3.1%/-1.4% MSB+5.3%/+5.3% PET+13.5%/+10.6% SAB🔥-0.9%/-3.0% STB🔥+2.0%/-1.1% VHM+4.8%/+10.1% VJC+1.0%/-0.8% VPI-4.4%/+1.3%
Chỉ TF tuần (8)
ACB-2.8%/-1.2% DHC🔥+0.5%/-2.1% E1VFVN30+1.0%/+1.8% NAB🔥+0.0%/+8.1% OCB+0.0%/+2.5% PVP+4.6%/-3.4% VIC+5.1%/+14.1% VVS+13.7%/+21.2%
Chỉ AGG bền (6)
BSR-7.3%/-9.3% EVF+1.9%/-5.2% GVR+0.3%/-12.6% NAF+0.0%/-3.1% POW+3.0%/+4.4% VPL+4.6%/-5.4%
05/06/2026
2026-W23
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (12)
E1VFVN30-1.5%/+1.4% GEX-7.8%/-4.5% HCM+0.0%/+5.7% HHP+2.8%/+0.7% MSB+1.4%/+8.1% NAF-3.8%/-7.1% PET-1.9%/+8.1% SAB+1.7%/+0.2% VHM-8.8%/+3.6% VIC-5.6%/+6.4% VJC🔥-2.1%/-0.1% VPL-4.9%/-6.2%
Chỉ TF tuần (8)
ACB🔥+1.3%/+0.5% CTR-4.0%/-6.2% DHC+1.8%/+4.1% KDC-2.2%/-2.4% KOS🔥-1.7%/-5.3% NAB+2.5%/+9.2% STB+1.6%/+3.2% VVS-6.6%/+15.9%
Chỉ AGG bền (8)
DPR-2.8%/-7.0% GMD-0.3%/+0.3% GVR+0.6%/-6.6% LPB-0.3%/+11.7% PHR-1.4%/-1.1% POW+0.4%/+10.8% VCB-0.2%/+0.5% VPI+4.1%/+3.9%
29/05/2026
2026-W22
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (15)
DPR+0.1%/-7.6% E1VFVN30-0.7%/+0.7% HCM-1.6%/-2.0% LPB-12.2%/+1.9% MSB🔥-3.3%/+3.9% NAF🔥-2.4%/-6.5% PAN-5.9%/-6.3% PET+1.4%/+7.6% PHR-4.2%/-9.7% STB+2.6%/+8.4% VHM-2.6%/+3.8% VIC-2.0%/+7.9% VPI-5.0%/-0.8% VPL-2.1%/-5.0% VRE-3.3%/-7.0%
Chỉ TF tuần (4)
BSR-4.2%/-18.5% CDC-12.1%/-7.2% PVP-1.1%/+2.0% VVS+4.8%/+22.4%
Chỉ AGG bền (9)
EVF-1.9%/-2.2% GEX-0.3%/-6.1% GMD+5.4%/+1.0% HHP-3.1%/-0.7% NAB+2.6%/+11.5% POW-1.8%/+8.0% SAB+1.8%/+3.7% VJC+7.4%/+5.5% VPB-2.4%/-1.3%
22/05/2026
2026-W21
Cả hai (đồng thuận) (11)
E1VFVN30-0.2%/-1.5% EVF-2.2%/+0.0% LPB-2.3%/-9.8% NAF🔥+2.1%/-4.2% PAN-1.1%/-7.6% PET+1.8%/+14.9% STB-4.5%/+1.5% VHM+1.4%/-5.5% VIC-2.4%/-5.1% VPI+5.2%/-0.5% VRE+1.7%/-7.4%
Chỉ TF tuần (11)
BSR+0.2%/-12.3% CDC🔥-6.3%/-14.9% DPR-0.5%/-3.7% HCM-3.7%/-0.9% HHP🔥-0.3%/-3.7% MSB🔥+6.3%/+9.7% PHR+0.4%/-3.0% PVP-1.7%/+0.8% PVT-4.1%/-3.5% TCO-7.2%/-22.7% VPL🔥+0.1%/-2.6%
Chỉ AGG bền (3)
GMD-1.8%/+4.6% NAB-4.9%/+0.0% VJC+1.1%/+7.4%

③ Tín hiệu đang theo dõi (interim — CHƯA đủ mốc, tạm tính)

Lợi nhuận TỚI HIỆN TẠI (đến phiên gần nhất) + số phiên đã trôi. TẠM TÍNH, chưa chốt — sẽ vào bảng ①/② khi đủ +1/+4 tuần. Mỗi mã: LN (số phiên đã trôi).
Tuần báo cáoCả haiChỉ TFChỉ AGG bền
07/08/2026
2026-W32
Cả hai (đồng thuận)
BMP-0.2% (3p) GMD+0.0% (3p) HCM+3.2% (3p) HHP+0.0% (3p) LPB+1.7% (3p) MSB-0.9% (3p) PET🔥+3.7% (3p) SSB+2.7% (3p) VIC+0.2% (3p) VVS-2.1% (3p)
Chỉ TF tuần
BAF🔥+1.1% (3p) DHC🔥-0.9% (3p) NAF+0.0% (3p) ORS🔥+2.9% (3p) VHM🔥+1.1% (3p) VNM🔥-0.3% (3p) VPI-4.0% (3p)
Chỉ AGG bền
ACB+1.6% (3p) HDB+2.4% (3p) POW+1.1% (3p) SAB+3.5% (3p) STB-0.7% (3p) TNI-7.6% (3p)
31/07/2026
2026-W31
Cả hai (đồng thuận)
ACB+3.9% (8p) BMP-3.1% (8p) HCM+4.6% (8p) HHP🔥+0.7% (8p) LPB+3.9% (8p) MSB+0.6% (8p) PET+6.2% (8p) STB+3.9% (8p) VIC+0.7% (8p) VVS🔥-1.9% (8p)
Chỉ TF tuần
PVP+6.5% (8p) SSB-0.6% (8p) VPI🔥-6.6% (8p)
Chỉ AGG bền
—
24/07/2026
2026-W30
Cả hai (đồng thuận)
HHP+1.0% (13p) LPB+2.7% (13p) MSB🔥+0.6% (13p) PET+12.9% (13p) STB🔥+0.8% (13p) VIC+1.1% (13p) VPI-6.1% (13p) VVS🔥-3.2% (13p)
Chỉ TF tuần
ACB🔥+1.1% (13p) BAF+8.8% (13p) BMP-1.0% (13p) CTS+6.0% (13p) GMD+5.5% (13p) HCM🔥+2.1% (13p) HDB+5.2% (13p) KLB+9.1% (13p) NAB-4.8% (13p) NAF🔥+5.8% (13p) OCB+7.4% (13p) ORS+9.9% (13p) PVD-1.6% (13p) SSB+0.3% (13p) TCX+3.3% (13p) TTA+7.6% (13p) VHM+13.5% (13p) VND+1.8% (13p)
Chỉ AGG bền
—
17/07/2026
2026-W29
Cả hai (đồng thuận)
ACB-3.4% (18p) BMP-2.0% (18p) GMD-0.4% (18p) HCM+3.0% (18p) HHP+1.7% (18p) KLB-2.3% (18p) LPB+1.7% (18p) MSB-1.8% (18p) ORS+3.6% (18p) PET+7.9% (18p) STB+0.8% (18p) VIC-2.0% (18p) VPI-2.5% (18p) VVS+8.5% (18p)
Chỉ TF tuần
E1VFVN30+0.1% (18p) HDB🔥-0.2% (18p) KDC+4.4% (18p) NAB🔥-7.8% (18p) NAF-1.6% (18p) POW-1.1% (18p) SBT+3.3% (18p) VHM+5.1% (18p) VJC-2.7% (18p) VND-5.9% (18p)
Chỉ AGG bền
BAF+5.7% (18p) CTS-12.6% (18p) PVD-4.3% (18p) SSB-3.1% (18p)